Bitcoin Bubble

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Bitcoin Is Designed to Satisfy the Four Economic Assurances
Assurance 1: Value should be exchanged globally and freely.
Why we believe Bitcoin Satisfies Assurance 1:
Bitcoin users can send any amount of value anytime to anyone anywhere.
Bitcoin allows anyone to participate. It does not rely on a centralized authority to control the
flow of transactions or to determine the eligibility of participants. It identifies individual users20
not by personal names or IP addresses but by cryptographic digital keys and addresses. A digital
key consists of a public and private key, akin to a bank account number and a secret pin code.
Each key is unique and does not require Internet access. To receive bitcoin, users generate bitcoin
addresses associated with their public keys, akin to beneficiary names on checks,21 which are
possible destinations for Bitcoin payments. Today, the number of daily active bitcoin addresses is
close to 1 million, as shown below
To send bitcoin, a user broadcasts a transaction to validators, known as nodes, in Bitcoin’s peerto-peer network. The nodes are volunteer computers running software to verify the network’s
integrity. Node operators range from individuals to large companies. Once a transaction is
broadcast, the user pays miners a bitcoin-denominated fee as miners “secure” the transaction.
To date, miners have earned $1.1 billion in fees cumulatively, securing more than 500 million
transactions, as shown below.
While centralized services like PayPal might provide a more convenient means of payment, unlike
Bitcoin they do not provide censorship-resistant guarantees. Once secured by a miner, a Bitcoin
transaction is irreversible, with settlement guaranteed. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be more
efficient at settling high value than small value transactions. That said, as long as they pay fees to
miners, Bitcoin users can send any amount anytime anywhere.
Since its creation, Bitcoin has settled more than $2.5 trillion in transactions, as shown in Figure 8,
the average size of which has been $2,000.
Assurance 2: Wealth should be protected and owned wholly.
Why We Believe Bitcoin Satisfies Assurance 2:
Bitcoin has an embedded independent property system.
While legal structures and local authorities enforce the ownership of traditional assets, cryptography
enforces bitcoin’s ownership. The only requirement to own bitcoin is the ability to send and receive
it: the possession of a private key equates to ownership. Control is a function of the private keys.
With effective key management, bitcoin is easy to conceal and protect, difficult to seize or steal.22
Typically, users store private keys in databases called wallets that are separate from the Bitcoin
protocol and can be managed without access to the internet. A traditional wallet stores private
keys locally and offline but might also be stored on paper or in human memory.
By replacing the local enforcer with private key cryptography, Bitcoin introduces a property
system that can operate outside traditional systems. Bitcoin’s personal sovereignty is particularly
useful in jurisdictions with weak property rights, as suggested by its higher usage in countries with
unstable property right enforcement
In our view, bitcoin is the deepest asset on the asset protection spectrum, given the absence of a
local protector
Assurance 3: Rules should be enforced reliably and predictably.
Why We Believe Bitcoin Satisfies Assurance 3:
Bitcoin incorporates a unique system of checks and balances to maintain integrity.
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work.
The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat
currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it
electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve.”
- Satoshi Nakamoto, creator of Bitcoin24
Bitcoin’s software formalizes its network rules. Humans are not the final arbiters of truth and cannot
decide unilaterally to change its rules. Instead, the nodes that verify transactions also enforce
the rules. Each node follows the same set of rules and is allowed in the network only if it follows
those rules. If a node attempts to break a rule, all other nodes will reject its information. Proposed
software changes are meaningless unless various stakeholders choose to accept them. Global and
disparate, nodes would not accept any compromise to the integrity of their bread and butter.
Nodes, however, are only one part of the equation maintaining Bitcoin’s integrity. Bitcoin
incorporates a unique system of checks and balances intended to encourage protocol innovation
and maintenance, while making sure that any changes are in the interest of stakeholders
Key to the system of checks and balances is the value of bitcoin the asset,25 which provides an
economic incentive for stakeholders to resolve disputes and maintain the system’s integrity. No
stakeholder has preferential rights or treatments, but each stakeholder benefits from bitcoin’s
price appreciation, the network’s primary signaling mechanism. Any change that threatens the
system’s integrity would threaten the value of bitcoin. Stakeholders therefore should have little
incentive to act maliciously.
The system of checks and balances, with four stakeholders, is detailed below
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain a predictable monetary policy is testimony to its robust system
of checks and balances. Bitcoin is the first verifiable digital asset that already is scarce: it is
mathematically metered to top out at 21 million units. In contrast to modern central banking in
which newly minted money finances government spending and lending, newly issued bitcoins
compensate miners who sequence and secure Bitcoin’s history of transactions.
Arguably, Bitcoin’s most valuable feature is its reliable monetary policy, as shown in Figure 11.
Arbitrary changes are highly improbable.
Assurance 4: The system’s integrity should be verifiable.
Why We believe Bitcoin satisfies Assurance 4:
Bitcoin embeds native verification tools.
Bitcoin not only protects participants from harmful rule changes, but also enforces and verifies the
first three assurances. Unlike in traditional financial institutions, individuals can fact check every
claim Bitcoin makes. Specifically, a Bitcoin node provides native verification tools that ensure the
enforcement of each rule, as shown in the table below.
All nodes house Bitcoin’s history, tracking the balances of all accounts. Each node is equal to
another in its capability to verify and audit. Today, any individual can download a Bitcoin client,
install a node, and audit/verify every transaction with little more than a computer command.
Bitcoin’s decentralization is a function of the low barrier to entry associated with running a node.
Today, thousands of globally dispersed nodes verify Bitcoin’s integrity inexpensively. Its native
verification tools enable financial auditability, encouraging entities building services on Bitcoin to
be transparent about their operations.